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Ashkan Ertefaie, PhD

Ashkan ErteFaieAssistant Professor
Ph.D. (2011) McGill University

Contact Information

University of Rochester
Dept of Biostatistics and Computational Biology
265 Crittenden Boulevard, CU 420630 
Rochester, New York 14642-0630
Office: Saunders Research Building 4205
Phone: (585) 275-2138
Fax: (585) 273-1031

Research Interests

My methodological research interest lies in causal inference, dynamic treatment regimes, sequential multiple assignment randomized trials, comparative effectiveness studies using electronic health records, instrumental variable analyses, high-dimensional data analysis, post selection inference, and survival analysis.

Particularly, I am interested in methodologies that lead to constructing the optimal sequence of treatments in chronic diseases where patients are monitored and treated throughout their life. Thus far, I have been primarily motivated by applications in health services, medicine and criminal justice.

Selected Publications


  • Zhao, Q., Small, D. S., and Ertefaie, A., Selective inference for effect modification via the lasso,
  • Ertefaie, A., and Strawderman, R. L. (2018) Constructing dynamic treatment regimes over indefinite time horizons, Biometrika, asy043,
  • Ertefaie, A., Nguyen, A., Harding, D., Morenoff, J, and Yang, W. (2018) Instrumental Variable Analysis with Censored Data in the Presence of Many Weak Instruments: Application to the Effect of Being Sentenced to Prison on Time to Employment. Annals of Applied Statistics. (Accepted)
  • Ertefaie, A., Small, S. D., and Rosenbaum, R. P. (2018) Quantitative Evaluation of the Trade-off of Strengthened Instruments and Sample Size in Observational Studies. Journal of the American Statistical Association, DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2017.1305275
  • Ertefaie, A., Hsu, J., and Small, D. (2018) Discovering Treatment Effect Heterogeneity through Post-treatment Variables with Application to the Effect of Class Size on Math Scores. JRSS-C. 67: 917-938. doi:10.1111/rssc.12265
  • Shortreed, S., and Ertefaie, A. (2017) Outcome-adaptive Lasso Variable Selection for Causal Inference. Biometrics. 73(4), 1111-1122.
  • Ertefaie, A., Small, D., Flory, J. H., and Hennessy, S. (2016) Selection Bias when using Instrumental Variable Methods to Compare two Treatments but more than two Treatments are Available. International Journal of Biostatistics. 12(1), 219-232.
  • Ertefaie, A., Shortreed, S., and Chakraborty, B. (2016), Q-learning Residual Analysis: Application to The Effectiveness of Sequences of Antipsychotic Medications for Patients with Schizophrenia. Statistics in Medicine. 35(13), 2221-2234.
  • Ertefaie, A., Wu, T., Lynch, K. G., Nahum-Shani, I. (2015) Identifying a Set that Contains the Best Dynamic Treatment Regimes. Biostatistics.  17(1), 135-148.


  • Ertefaie, A., Small, D. S., Ji, X., Leonard, C., and Hennessy, S. (2018). Statistical Power for Trend-in-trend Design. Epidemiology, 29(3), e21-e23.
  • Kaufman, E. J., Ertefaie, A., Small, D. S., Holena, D. N., and Delgado, M. K. (2018). Comparative Effectiveness of Initial Treatment at Trauma Center vs Neurosurgery-Capable Non-Trauma Center for Severe, Isolated Head Injury. Journal of the American College of Surgeons. 226(5), 741-751.
  • Ertefaie, A., Flory, J. H., Hennessy, S., and Small, D. (2017), Instrumental Variable Methods for Continuous Outcomes that Accommodate Non-ignorable Missing Baseline Values. American Journal of Epidemiology, 185(12), 1233-1239.
  • Nahum-Shani, I., Ertefaie, A., Lu, X., Almirall, D., Lynch, K. G., McKay, J. R., and Oslin, D. (2017), A SMART Data Analysis Method for Constructing Adaptive Treatment Strategies in Substance Use Disorders. Addiction, 112(5), 901-909.
  • Ertefaie, A., Small, D., Flory, J. H., and Hennessy, S. (2017) A Tutorial on the Use of Instrumental Variables in Pharmacoepidemiology. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety. 26(4), 357-367.
  • Ertefaie, A., Small, D., Flory, J. H., Hennessy, S. (2016) A Sensitivity Analysis to Assess Bias Due to Selecting Subjects Based on Treatment Received, Epidemiology, 27, 2, e5-e7.