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2023 Colloquia

Transportability of Prediction Models

Jon A Steingrimsson, Ph.D.
Brown University

Prediction models are often used and/or interpreted in the context of a target population that differs from the study population from which the data used to develop the model comes from (e.g., a different health-care system or a different geographic region). In this talk, we discuss how to evaluate a prediction model in the context of the target population when outcome and covariate information are available from the study data and covariate but no outcome data are available on a sample from the target population. We provide identifiability results, estimators, and large sample properties of estimators for loss-based measures of model performance, and briefly discuss extensions to censoring and estimation of the area under the curve. Finite sample performance is evaluated using simulations and using data from a lung cancer screening trial.

Thursday, March 30, 2023
3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Helen Wood Hall Room 1W-509